Key Insights:
After years of contentious debate, Latvia ratified the Istanbul Convention on November 30, 2023, with the treaty entering into force on May 1, 2024. The Convention, a Council of Europe human rights treaty designed to prevent violence against women and domestic violence, has since enabled significant reforms providing practical support to victims. However, opposition conservative and populist lawmakers and Greens and Farmers from the coalition have submitted a proposal to withdraw Latvia from the treaty.
This triggered a disinformation campaign by conservative and populist parties that systematically distorts the Convention’s purpose and effects. Disinformation centers on fabricated claims that the violence prevention treaty promotes multiple genders, enables child gender transitions, and threatens traditional family values, while dismissing the Convention as ineffective liberal bureaucracy and suggesting conservative values alone prevent domestic violence. Politicians employ Trumpian manipulation tactics including conspiracy theories about elite corruption, personal attacks on opponents, delegitimization of democratic institutions, and apocalyptic messaging, creating narratives that mirror Russian information operations and transform policy debates into culture war battles undermining Latvia’s democratic institutions and European alignment.
The main narratives were:
- Western values are immoral
- Government is destroying traditional values
- LGBTQ+ values are morally decadent
- “Gender Ideology” conspiracy
- Istanbul Convention is a conspiracy against traditional families
Overview of the Findings:
While Kremlin-aligned disinformation has long been a consistent presence in Latvia’s information space through channels like Telegram and TikTok, the more alarming development is how local politicians have brought disinformation into the center of Latvian politics. The Istanbul Convention debate reveals how opposition parties and some coalition members have adopted disinformation strategies, making conspiracy theories and fabricated threats core components of mainstream political discourse rather than fringe activity.
Narratives about the Convention mirror Russian propaganda playbooks. Politicians like Ainars Šlesers claim the Istanbul Convention promotes “117 genders”, enables forced gender transitions for children, and represents “alien Marxist ideology” designed to destroy traditional family values and replace “mom and dad” with “PARENT 1 and PARENT 2.” These fabrications systematically ignore the Convention’s actual focus on violence prevention and victim protection, instead creating false dichotomies between women’s safety and cultural preservation that position Western institutions as existential threats to Latvian identity.
Russian-aligned Telegram channels continue undermining Latvia’s sovereignty through standard Kremlin narratives. The “Antifascists of Pribaltics” channel mocks discussions of Russian reparations to Ukraine, while Roslikovs from the Stability party frames expulsion of Russian citizens who failed to renew permits as a government conspiracy to “spoil relations with the Russian Federation.” He portrays people expelled as innocent victims while claiming Europe imposes a “double standard” treating “Russians as second-rate people.” These narratives position Russia as defender of ethnic Russians abroad while casting Latvia as a Western puppet, reinforcing the Kremlin talking point denying Baltic sovereignty.
Story of the Month:
Conservative Disinformation Campaign Against Istanbul Convention
After years of debate, Latvia ratified the Istanbul Convention on November 30, 2023, with the treaty entering force on May 1, 2024. The Convention, a Council of Europe human rights treaty designed to prevent violence against women and domestic violence, has since enabled significant reforms providing practical support to victims. Latvia has by far the highest intentional female homicide rate in Europe. However, opposition lawmakers from the National Alliance, United List, and Latvia First parties, joined by the governing coalition’s Greens and Farmers’ Union want Latvia to withdraw from the treaty. Last week, the Saeima supported withdrawal in its first reading and designated the bill as urgent, reducing the process to only two readings. With the final vote scheduled for October 30, disinformation has been at the center of politics for over a month, systematically distorting the Convention’s purpose.
Trump-like party Latvia First developed a proposal to abandon the Convention. In the Parliament this initiative is predominantly pushed also by the National Alliance, with less active support from Greens and Farmers and United List. However, while all conservative and populist parties are pushing this agenda, the Latvia First gains by far most traction in social media about this issue, likely benefiting the most from it. While posts by National Alliance members on X about this issue get hundreds of engagements, posts by Latvia First get thousands and are among the most popular disinformation posts far outmatching the reach of monitored Russian disinformation in October.
The most prominent narrative spread by Latvia First leader, oligarch Ainars Šlesers centers on the fabricated claim that the Istanbul Convention promotes “117 genders” and enables forced gender transitions for children. Šlesers shares alarmist content claiming the Convention will lead to children undergoing gender transitions and schools “brainwashing” students to swap genders, warning it will replace “mom and dad” with “PARENT 1 and PARENT 2.” This is a deliberate strategy to shout the loudest, put out the most crazy statements in order to game the social media algorithms to get the most attention online.
The disinformation campaign also includes personal attacks, with Rudolfs Bremanis from New Latvians using homophobic slurs like “zilie” to mock Greens and Farmers and Šlesers posting images suggesting the Unity party leader claiming he “looks like a transsexual.” This weaponization of transphobia and homophobia serves to delegitimize Convention supporters while reinforcing false associations between violence prevention measures and manufactured threats to gender norms.
These narratives closely mirror Russian information operations portraying Western civilization as morally decadent and threatening traditional values. Conservative and populist politicians employ Russian tactics including conspiracy theories about “Sorosists” corrupting the government, claims the Convention was “ratified with fraud and pressure,” and apocalyptic calls for the nation to “wake up and save Latvia.” By manufacturing non-existent threats about gender and children while attacking democratic institutions and opponents, these politicians create an information environment where facts become irrelevant and policy debates transform into culture war battles that undermine Latvia’s European integration and democratic institutions from within.
