Report
Latvia Weekly: How Outrage Is Fueling a Populist Surge
The previously fringe Union of New Latvians party is now polling to pass the 5% threshold for Riga’s city council. Its leaders Glorija Grevcova and Rūdolfs Brēmanis are generating social media engagement through content which can be described as “outrage porn.” They are stirring up outrage in their audience using charged and even fake topics to provoke strong emotional reactions. Guess the populist political party which gained the most engagements for its posts on Facebook, TikTok and Telegram? It was not Roslikovs, the leader of Stability! party. It was not Ainārs Šlesers, Trump-like leader of Latvia First party. It was Glorija Grevcova and Rūdolfs Brēmanis from the Union New Latvians.
Weekly Reports
Lithuania Weekly: financial scandals threatening the government
During this reporting week, Kremlin-aligned media mainly held on the BaltCap’s case, as the recent internal investigation found Šarūnas Stepukonis may have embezzled even €40.4 million, and the fact that MP Justas Džiugelis has suspended his membership at the ruling Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democratic (TS-LKD) party and left the party’s group at the Seimas amid reports of his ties to a gambling lobbyist.
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Latvia Weekly: Media and Trump
In the examined week, the content surrounded domestic issues such as corruption and media funding and international topics such as the upcoming US elections, NATO and assistance for Ukraine. Most notably, there is a highly critical view of the capabilities and the effectiveness of NATO, which were also prominent in the prior two weeks. The reasoning for such claims is rooted in the unwillingness of other NATO states to help in the case of an attack. Regarding content, the leading platform remains TikTok which garners the most engagement and there is a significant decrease in engagement with content published on Facebook. Although some of the examined content creators are increasingly more active on Twitter/X, engagement remains low.
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Estonia Weekly: Macron and Schools
This week, many posts focused on Kai Kallas’s reaction to the French President’s speech on Ukraine and her willingness to send Estonians into the war for Ukraine. There were also posts about shutting down some schools and the loss of teachers’ jobs, as well as about school janitors and cafeteria workers being required to speak Estonian at an A2 level and how that is not helpful or useful. Finally, there continue to be posts regarding the Estonian economy and Kai Kalla’s and the government’s reactions and actions toward it.
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Lithuania Weekly: Two years on since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine
During this reporting week, Kremlin-aligned media were mainly concentrated on the upcoming Presidential elections and continued to spread anti-government sentiments. Even though this narrative is well-established, the current intensity of this narrative is remarkable: this may be directly associated with the Lithuanian elections due to take place later this year. Because of bypassing the years mark of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine during this reporting period, Kremlin-aligned outlets also discussed Russia’s war in Ukraine, claiming that “Lithuania will enter the war in Ukraine together with the Poles by sending their troops”. Articles criticised the government, stating that “Lithuania does not need the war with the Russians that this traitorous government is preparing “ and broadly portraying Ukraine’s victory as elusive and its government as “untrustworthy”.
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Latvia Weekly: Public Transport and NATO
In the examined week, the content primarily surrounded domestic issues relating to alleged corruption, the potential invasion by Russia, and the inability of NATO to protect the Baltic states. Such narratives have been employed by highly nationalistic content creators claiming to be supporters of Ukraine and those more aligned with the Kremlin narratives. The premise of the claim is that NATO is either ineffective not have the capability to protect the Baltic states or will not be willing to protect the Baltic states in the case of an invasion.
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Estonia Weekly: Military commitments and foreign policy
This week, many posts focused on Kai Kallas’s reaction to the French President’s speech on Ukraine and her willingness to send Estonians into the war for Ukraine. There were also posts about shutting down some schools and the loss of teachers’ jobs, as well as about school janitors and cafeteria workers being required to speak Estonian at an A2 level and how that is not helpful or useful. Finally, there continue to be posts regarding the Estonian economy and Kai Kalla’s and the government’s reactions and actions toward it.
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Lithuania Weekly: Weekly: Death of Alexei Navalny and undermining trust in NATO
Kremlin-aligned media outlets broadly commented on NATO and its possible faith. Outlets emphasised the questionable future of the organisation if Trump becomes the President, foreseeing that “it would be over for NATO”. Outlets also pictured Ukraine’s victory as impossible and ensured that “US and Europe have lost the war to Russia in Ukraine, and Crimea and Donbas will remain Russian territories”. Outlets also speculated the reasons behind the death of “the US-funded and Western-praised” Alexei Navalny, seeking conspiracy theories of whom to blame and calling him “a Western puppet”.
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Latvia Weekly: School reforms and corruption
During the examined week, the content primarily surrounded domestic issues relating to school reforms, an investigative report on one of the opposition parties, and high living expenses. A common theme throughout the content examined is that all of the issues are directly linked to corruption and leading political parties potentially to create lower trust in government. Additionally, the content discussed often mentions how specific policies negatively affect children. Most notably, the disinformation actors from the opposition party “Latvia in the first place” were recently exposed for their intentional content creation, including disinformation narratives. From this week’s findings, the disinformation actors that belong to the opposition party and their primary channels on social media are receiving significantly less engagement (the posts now reach less than fifty likes compared to the usual few hundred). Additionally, the content published now is milder in the disinformation narratives and trying to portray them more covertly or does not include them at all.
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Estonia Weekly: Ukraine and Soviet-era policies
This week, there were many posts which were connected to the Estonian Independence Day, many of which involved people claiming that they hoped that the repression and demonisation of the Russian civilians would end. There was also a claim that an Estonian attacked a person for being a Russian speaker. The Russian embassy to Estonia had many posts concerning the Euromaidan protests in Kyiv 10 years ago. It stated that this is when Ukraine fell into Nazism, and the involvement of the West is what caused the war along with Ukraine’s bombing of Donbas for several years. Social and political issues, such as price increases and the budget, were also mentioned in posts, and one poster claimed that the price increases in Estonia today are similar to those seen during the Soviet Union.
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