Main narratives:
- Baltic States are puppets of the USA;
- USA / Trump will abandon Baltics;
- US real rulers are a secret military-industrial complex;
- Trump is a hero fighting against LGBT and conspiratorial forces.
Overview:
The posts in Kremlin-aligned Telegram channels contain several interconnected narratives designed to sow discord and uncertainty. The primary narrative targets the Baltic states, portraying them as financially irresponsible and overly dependent on the United States.
The posts strategically use Trump’s statements to undermine NATO solidarity and regional security. They frame Trump’s potential presidency as a threat to Baltic interests while simultaneously suggesting this could lead to a new US-Russia understanding. This messaging aims to create anxiety about US commitment to regional defense while hinting at the possibility of great power negotiations over the heads of smaller states. An interesting new narrative appeared in the monitored channels invoking a conspiracy that “Even if Trump wants to somehow stop the accelerated military-industrial complex, it is unlikely that anyone will allow him to do so.” This invokes a conspiracy that the US is run by secret interest groups.
The posts also work to delegitimize previous US-Baltic relationships by characterizing them as corrupt arrangements built on “cozy schemes” and special deals for local elites. This narrative suggests that Baltic independence is illusory and that European autonomy is a pretense. Similarly, Baltic increases of defence spending are labeled as only a “military-industrial complex”.
The underlying message throughout these posts suggests an inevitable realignment of world order where smaller states’ interests will be sacrificed to great power politics, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict. This narrative serves to create a sense of inevitability about reduced Western support for regional security and sovereignty.
Local peddlers of disinformation also celebrated Trump’s inauguration by celebrating his critical attitude towards the LGBT community, which MP Roslikovs described as “liberal heresy”, using Trump, to reaffirm Covid-19 conspiracies, criticize independent media and the government of Latvia.
