Key Insights:
In November 2024, Kremlin-aligned media in Lithuania featured various noteworthy topics, but the following themes were the most engaging ones:
- Parliamentary Coalition Controversy: The inclusion of the “Nemuno Aušra” party sparked public protests, particularly over allegations of antisemitism linked to its leader, Remigijus Žemaitaitis.
- Election Legitimacy: Kremlin-aligned media fueled claims of election fraud and suppression of dissent, undermining the legitimacy of the new government.
- Economic Concerns: Rising costs and economic instability dominated discussions, with media linking Lithuania’s foreign policy to domestic hardship.
- Support for Ukraine: Debates intensified over Lithuania’s military and financial support for Ukraine, framed as detrimental to Lithuania’s citizens.
- U.S. Presidential Election: The developments in the 2024 U.S. presidential election were closely followed in Lithuania, with discussions around the candidates’ stances on foreign policy, particularly their positions on Russia and NATO, affecting Lithuania’s security concerns.
Kremlin-aligned media in Lithuania aggressively promoted two major narratives aimed at undermining public trust in the government and its pro-Western stance. The first narrative delegitimised the recent parliamentary elections, alleging fraud and suppressed dissent while portraying the coalition with the controversial “Nemuno Aušra” party as evidence of Lithuania’s moral and political decline. Protests against the coalition were framed as signs of broader instability, deepening public disillusionment. These outlets attacked critics like former President Dalia Grybauskaitė, accusing her of Kremlin ties and discrediting her warnings about the coalition’s harm to EU and NATO relations.
The second narrative escalated criticism of Lithuania’s support for Ukraine, portraying it as an unjustified burden amidst alleged domestic crises such as economic instability, rising costs, and declining living standards. By linking foreign aid to national hardship, these platforms sought to stoke resentment against the government’s priorities, fostering anti-Western sentiments. Together, these narratives aimed to exploit political divisions, undermine democratic institutions and weaken Lithuania’s solidarity with Ukraine while advancing broader anti-Western and nationalist themes.
Regarding raising resilience in the country, researchers at Vilnius University are developing an innovative AI-based tool called ATSPARA to detect propaganda and disinformation in Lithuanian media. The system uses advanced hybrid neural networks and machine learning to identify misleading narratives in news and social media. By analysing patterns and contextual indicators, it aims to enhance public awareness and institutional response to information warfare threats. Funded by the Lithuanian Research Council, this project seeks to strengthen societal resilience against the growing challenges of fake news and propaganda.
Overview of findings:
An increased number, 1255 articles, compared to 1125 articles analysed during October, were scrutinised from four Kremlin-aligned media outlets still actively operating in Lithuania.
Throughout November 2024, the all-time most prominent Kremlin-aligned narrative in Lithuania – anti-governmental sentiments – was particularly linked to the results of recent parliamentary elections and the protests that followed afterwards. During this month, Kremlin-aligned media discussed the protest titled “10 Minutes of Silence”, which was organised to show significant discontent with the inclusion of the “Nemuno Aušra” party in Lithuania’s governing coalition. The demonstration, which took place outside the Lithuanian parliament on November 14th, gathered approximately 5,000 participants opposing this decision. The protest was fueled by the ongoing trial of Remigijus Žemaitaitis, leader of “Nemuno Aušra”, over allegations of antisemitic remarks. Critics, including President Gitanas Nausėda, have denounced the coalition as harmful to the country. Additionally, various NGOs and international officials have raised concerns about the coalition’s potential impact on democratic values and human rights in Lithuania.
Kremlin-aligned Lithuanian media offered a contrasting portrayal of the protests compared to mainstream outlets. These platforms framed the events as evidence of governmental incompetence and a broader political and moral decline, presenting Lithuania as a nation grappling with systemic instability. This narrative underscored broad dissatisfaction with Lithuania’s pro-Western orientation and suggested the coalition reflected deeper national crises.
Furthermore, these outlets leveraged the protests to amplify scepticism about Lithuania’s government, reiterating familiar anti-Western narratives of corruption and inefficacy. Disinformation networks in Lithuania continue to exploit such events, easily linking them to broader anti-Western and nationalist themes. By spreading conspiracy theories and undermining democratic institutions, these campaigns aim to foster division within Lithuanian society while diminishing support for Ukraine.
According to the media monitoring tool Awario, the topic of elections continued to dominate Lithuanian media throughout November, though this time, it was accompanied by presidential elections in the United States. The search for all forms of the word “rinkimai” (meaning “elections” in Lithuanian) revealed a significant number, over 15.2K mentions across various media platforms that the tool was able to capture. The analysis also shows how these mentions were distributed daily throughout the month, reflecting the significant media focus on the topic.
Furthermore, the significant volume of mentions generated an impressive reach of nearly 50 million. This spike in engagement highlights the high level of public and media attention surrounding the elections, as seen in the daily distribution data provided below.
