Key Insights:
- Over February 2025, pro-Kremlin media in Lithuania escalated efforts to undermine trust in the country’s strategic decisions, primarily focusing on Lithuania’s disconnection from the BRELL electricity grid. A fair share of attention was paid to the February 16th Independence Day celebrations, the Munich Security Conference, and the conversation between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, encouraging raising fears of potential conflict exceeding Ukraine’s territory.
- The country’s decision to disconnect from the BRELL electricity grid was constantly discredited by Kremlin-aligned media in Lithuania, portraying it as an irresponsible and self-destructive move. Malign narratives suggested that Lithuania was plunging itself into energy insecurity, risking blackouts, and unnecessarily increasing energy costs for its citizens. Kremlin-aligned outlets emphasised that Lithuania had been “forced” into this decision by Western interests, arguing that remaining in BRELL would have ensured stability and affordability, especially when it was a “well-functioning and familiar system”. Some narratives even claimed that this step could push Lithuania toward economic hardship, making it more dependent on foreign aid.
- Just like during the January 13th commemorations, Kremlin-aligned media relentlessly targeted Lithuania’s historical memory and political landscape during the February 16th Independence Day celebrations. Events were targeted by Kremlin-aligned media, which sought to undermine national unity, depicting the commemorations as an empty, overly nationalistic display used by the government to distract from economic and social issues. Some narratives sought to diminish the significance of Lithuania’s independence, framing it as a poorly reliable stance, especially in the current geopolitical context.
- Meanwhile, the conversation between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky was weaponised by pro-Kremlin outlets to cast doubt on Western commitments to Ukraine and Lithuania’s national security. Kremlin-aligned media seized on the meeting to suggest that Trump’s rhetoric indicated waning U.S. support for Ukraine, implying that Lithuania’s reliance on NATO and Western allies was as fragile as ever before. Kremlin-aligned narratives suggested that NATO could abandon Lithuania, portraying the alliance as an unreliable partner controlled by self-serving elites. These efforts sought to deepen uncertainty about Lithuania’s geopolitical future and further increase already high tensions in the country.
- Disinformation continued to be recognised as a highly prominent issue within different topics: on the 18th of February, the European Union’s environmental directors convened in Warsaw to discuss key challenges in environmental governance, with a particular focus on combating disinformation. The meeting addressed the growing threat of misleading narratives that distort climate policies and environmental regulations, often undermining public trust and delaying crucial sustainability initiatives. Participants emphasised the need for more substantial digitalisation efforts and cross-border cooperation to counter false information and ensure transparent communication with the public.
Overview of the findings:
- As usual, four Kremlin-aligned media outlets still operating in Lithuania were analysed during this month. However, the most active outlet, usually averaging around 800 content pieces per month, was unreachable, as it announced being updated; therefore 351 articles from the remaining outlets were scrutinised.
- Throughout February 2025, Kremlin-aligned narratives in Lithuania focused on themes of national security, NATO’s unreliability, and disinformation targeting Ukraine and the Lithuanian government. Disinformation efforts sought to spread fear by amplifying threats of an imminent war, portraying Lithuania as unprepared and vulnerable. Furthermore, NATO was depicted as a highly untrustworthy ally incapable (and not even willing) of ensuring regional security, while Lithuania’s unwavering support for Ukraine was framed as self-destructive. At the same time, the local government faced relentless criticism, focusing on its decision to leave the BRELL electricity grid, which was portrayed as reckless and economically damaging. These narratives aimed to deepen distrust, discourage further support for Ukraine, and sow doubts about Lithuania’s national security and strategic alliances.
- The YouScan media monitoring tool managed to capture even 59,214 content pieces (a visible increase compared to the 42,103 pieces captured the previous month) throughout February related to pro-Kremlin media in Lithuania, including different posts, videos, tweets, and comments written under them.
- The graph below indicates daily engagement levels throughout February. A more detailed breakdown based on visible trends follows:
- Throughout February, engagement with Kremlin-aligned media in Lithuania was higher overall than in January, with notable peaks on the 7th and 15th and the highest on the 25th. Engagement surged mid-month, around the Munich Security Conference, suggesting a renewed focus on insecurity, NATO’s reliability, or growing fear of Lithuania’s geopolitical situation. As detailed analysis revealed, the most significant peak on the 25th happened due to many content pieces on the war in Ukraine, German elections, and rising tensions between Russia and Lithuania.
- Examples of the most engaged social media content pieces during the most significant peak on the 25th of February
“Литовская военная машина против России” (en (. Lithuanian military machine against Russia).
“Pavlovičius atskleidžia Zelenskio pabėgimo planą” (en. Pavlovičius reveals his escape plan).
Story of the Month:
Lithuania Leaving BRELL
During February, the disconnection of the Baltic states from the BRELL electricity network has become a focal point of Kremlin-aligned media narratives in Lithuania, sparking a wave of disinformation and downplaying the country’s energetic independence. Until the transition, these outlets tried to turn the audiences against this move: pushed claims of inevitable power disruptions, rising electricity prices, and government negligence, aiming to turn public opinion against the move. The campaign aimed to undermine trust in Lithuanian authorities and broader Western integration efforts by portraying the decision as reckless and detrimental to ordinary citizens.
In the days leading up to the BRELL disconnection, Kremlin-aligned media actively worked to convince the public that the transition was a disastrous decision before it had even taken place. Through widespread disinformation, they painted a picture of inevitable chaos, warning that power outages would cripple daily life and urging people to buy generators and food supplies in preparation for an energy crisis. Narratives emphasised that Lithuanian authorities were making reckless choices without considering the consequences and that citizens would soon face significant inconveniences. By framing the decision as a failure, these actors sought to erode public trust and create a sense of instability, reinforcing the idea that Lithuania was unprepared and would soon regret its departure from the Russian-controlled grid.
Among examples is the most engaged social media post throughout the month, considering BRELL: a YouTube video called ”Zigmas Vaišvila: kaip mums meluojama” (en. Zigmas Vaišvila: How we are being lied to) (see screenshot on the right) by Komentaras TV channel. It gathered over 4K likes, nearly 400 comments, and more than 90k views in just two weeks. The vital question discussed in the video was that disconnection from BRELL is being presented as energy independence, but is it really so? Vaišvila continued the narrative of undermining Lithuania‘s effort to prosper independently and tried to list all possible drawbacks of this decision. Channel’s subscribers unitingly thanked the guest and interviewer for the show, fully supporting their position and, therefore, opposing the government‘s decision to leave the BRELL.
Another key theme in the disinformation campaign was the claim that ordinary citizens would bear the brunt of the financial consequences, with electricity prices supposedly skyrocketing overnight. Kremlin-aligned sources repeatedly pushed the idea that politicians and the ruling elite would benefit from the transition while households and businesses would struggle with soaring costs. Fearmongering posts and viral messages warned that Lithuania’s move toward energy independence would come at an unbearable price, discouraging support for the decision. By framing the transition as an elite-driven project that would disproportionately harm everyday people, malign actors sought to fuel resentment and opposition to the country’s energy policies.
Examples of well-engaged comments, claiming that electricity prices “will definitely rise”, forecasting it rising “at least twice!” and ensuring that “the BRELL was left only for that, that in the future they [the government] could raise prices infinitely”.
Another post that went viral online and fuelled claims of disruption was of former Seimas member Mindaugas Puidokas, when he shared a Facebook post, alleging that a “Circle K” gas station was temporarily “out of service due to power issues linked to the BRELL disconnection” (see screenshot on the right). His post suggested the transition was already causing significant problems, amplifying the fearmongering spread by Kremlin-aligned sources. However, the photo he shared did not clearly show a power outage at the gas station, as the screen under the paper was working. Puidokas sarcastically wrote: “A great and absolutely safe preparation for the disconnection from BRELL is already visible in Kaunas. There are definitely no power disruptions. If you see any, quickly check your health or political views.” This attempt to discredit the transition was part of a broader campaign against Lithuania’s energy independence efforts. At first, the comment section was flooded with his followers, agreeing with the situation and confidently asserting that this was inevitable when such “poorly calculated decisions were made”. However, when the post was shared on Facebook, many people came in to criticise his “insufficient effort” to sow fear and dissatisfaction, ironically asking “What planet did you come from?” or ensuring that “he will not be paid the promised rubbles for this” (examples of commenters mocking Puidokas, calling him an alien or directly associating him with Kremlin, are visible below) At the end, the original post resulted in nearly 2k of engagements on Puidokas’ Facebook profile.
Lithuania’s disconnection from the BRELL electricity network highlighted not only a massive step towards the country’s complete independence but also persistent efforts of Kremlin-aligned media to undermine trust in the government and Lithuania’s alignment with the West. By framing the transition as a major failure, malign actors sought to instill fear, spread uncertainty, and reinforce the idea that Lithuania’s leadership was making reckless and harmful decisions. Using viral posts, misleading claims about electricity prices, and amplified social media narratives demonstrated a strategic attempt to turn the audiences against this move. However, while these narratives gained traction among specific audiences, pushback from other social media users also revealed growing resistance to disinformation. The case of BRELL served as another example of how narratives of fear and economic hardship are being weaponised to destabilise public confidence and hinder Lithuania’s efforts to break free from any possible Russian influence.
