Main narratives:
- Russia uses maritime law to justify retaliation;
- The Estonian government is incompetent in civil defence.
Overview:
Last week, pro-Kremlin propaganda exploited two maritime incidents in the Baltic Sea near Estonia and the testing of an emergency alert system to further its agenda.
In the first case, Estonian forces attempted to intercept the tanker ‘Jaguar’, which is suspected of being part of Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ used to evade sanctions. The vessel, which was sailing under a flag of convenience, resisted the attempts to board it and was escorted by a Russian Su-35S fighter jet, which reportedly violated Estonian airspace. In response, NATO deployed aircraft, leading to a tense aerial standoff over the Gulf of Finland. Pro-Kremlin commentators on social media portrayed this incident as an aggressive act by Estonia and NATO, accusing them of exacerbating tensions and endangering regional stability.
On 18 May, Russia detained the Liberia-flagged, Greek-owned oil tanker Green Admire after it departed from Sillamäe in Estonia bound for Rotterdam. The vessel was intercepted while navigating a route that passes through Russian territorial waters — a passage that has historically been permitted under agreements between Estonia, Finland and Russia. Estonian authorities viewed the detention as a retaliatory move linked to their efforts to disrupt Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’, which is used to circumvent Western sanctions on Russian oil exports. Pro-Kremlin commentators, however, portrayed the incident as lawful enforcement, emphasising that the tanker had entered Russian waters without authorisation. This narrative aimed to depict Russia as a nation that upholds international maritime law, while portraying Estonia as provocative and overreaching.
On 14 May, as part of the Estonian Defence Forces’ “Siil” exercise, the national emergency alert system EE-ALARM was tested for the first time, involving sirens in 22 populated areas. Ultimately, 72% of the sirens were activated, 10% of which did so with a delay. The sound level of the sirens was also lower than planned. Corresponding SMS messages about the system test also arrived on mobile phones with a delay.
Users of popular Russian-language social media groups openly mocked the outcome of the exercise. Posts about the low volume of the sirens were accompanied by sarcastic memes, and many comments expressed suspicions of corruption. Some users even claimed that part of the state’s spending on the emergency alert system had been stolen. All of this fits into a classic narrative of hostility towards the Estonian state, portraying it as ‘ineffective’ or ‘failing’.
