Lithuania Monthly: Elections Draw Intense Focus from Kremlin-Aligned Media

Key insights:

The “Awario” analysis of Kremlin-aligned Lithuanian media in October identified the following key themes:

1. Lithuanian Parliamentary Elections. Emphasis on inflation and economic hardship under the existing government, alongside framing the rise of populist parties as a symptom of political instability.
2. Social Democrats’ Potential Coalition: Kremlin-aligned sources discussed the Social Democrats’ expected coalition, particularly portraying potential alliances as contentious and highlighting internal rifts.
3. Defence Expenditure and NATO Alignment: Criticism of Lithuania’s heavy defense spending and its NATO membership, framed as escalating tensions with Russia rather than prioritizing economic recovery.
4. Economic Inflation and Rising Costs: Reports highlighted Lithuania’s high inflation rate and economic strain, blaming it on the government’s prioritization of foreign policy over domestic needs.
5. EU Immigration Policy: Articles covered Lithuania’s border control challenges, with a particular focus on its strict stance against Belarus, questioning the impact of EU immigration policies on Lithuania’s security.
6. Sanctions Impact on Energy Costs: Stories emphasized the rise in energy costs as a direct consequence of European Union sanctions on Russian energy imports, framing the sanctions as detrimental to Lithuanian citizens.
7. Support for Ukraine: Reports questioned Lithuania’s military aid to Ukraine, highlighting it as a financial burden with questionable benefits to Lithuanian citizens.
8. Concerns over Russian Threat: Coverage suggested that Lithuanian security policies overstate the threat from Russia, portraying the Baltic government as influenced by NATO fearmongering.
9. Andrius Kubilius’ Role in the EU: Kremlin-aligned media remarked on Kubilius’ appointment as European Commissioner for Defense, suggesting this would further entrench EU militarization against Russia.

These themes reflected a narrative aimed at questioning Lithuania’s pro-Western policies, emphasizing economic struggles, and framing security policies as exaggerated or counterproductive.

In October 2024, Kremlin-aligned media in Lithuania focused on two primary themes: Ukraine-related issues and anti-governmental narratives. Coverage on Ukraine featured stories questioning Lithuania’s continued support for Ukraine despite rising domestic economic hardship, framing it as neglectful of local priorities. Reports highlighted the recent NATO defense agreement discussions, portraying them as potentially dangerous escalations, with claims that “NATO’s actions in the region are putting Lithuanian citizens at risk.” Additionally, the media focused on Ukraine’s involvement in cross-border incidents, such as alleged cyber-attacks on Russian infrastructure, framing these actions as provocations that could destabilize the region.

In terms of anti-governmental sentiments, Lithuanian Kremlin-aligned outlets intensified criticism around the parliamentary elections, portraying the ruling parties and opposition alike as disconnected from the needs of ordinary Lithuanians. Articles questioned the legitimacy of the electoral process, suggesting that “the government is out of touch with the economic struggles of the public.” There was also coverage accusing officials of mishandling public funds and resources, with claims that “despite government failures and economic hardships, citizens are forced to endure,” casting the leadership as unfit for addressing Lithuania’s pressing issues. This narrative sought to undermine public confidence in both the election results and Lithuania’s alignment with Western allies.

A new pilot initiative in Lithuania seeks to strengthen civic resilience and crisis preparedness by enhancing collaboration between NGOs and government institutions at both national and local levels. This project, focused on the Nordic-Baltic region, addresses rising unconventional threats, including cyberattacks, hybrid warfare, disinformation, and incited cultural conflicts. Key activities include study visits to Sweden and Finland, municipal-level training sessions, and tabletop exercises to assess response coordination in crisis scenarios. An international forum, “Crisis Day,” will also be held to share lessons from Ukraine and Nordic-Baltic countries. The project aims to foster partnerships, improve public involvement in crisis management, and enhance NGO-government cooperation to bolster Lithuania’s resilience and crisis management capabilities.

Overview of the findings:

• A visibly increased number, 1125 articles, compared to 885 articles analyzed during September, were scrutinized from four Kremlin-aligned media outlets still actively operating in Lithuania.
• Throughout October 2024, the all-time most prominent Kremlin-aligned narrative in Lithuania – anti-governmental sentiment – was particularly linked to the parliamentary elections. This month, it prominently featured dissatisfaction with the ruling center-right government led by Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė. This narrative was fueled by public grievances over rising living costs and social inequality, which were significant factors influencing voter sentiment.
• The Social Democratic Party, positioned as the main opposition, capitalized on these anti-government sentiments, with its leader, Vilija Blinkeviciute, emphasizing that voters were seeking a government that “could address their economic struggles”. Polls indicated a significant lead for the Social Democrats, suggesting a strong desire among voters for a different approach to governance, particularly in areas such as social services and economic policy. The elections highlighted not only a firm rejection of the incumbent party’s policies but also a broader dissatisfaction that was echoed in Kremlin-aligned media narratives, which portrayed the elections as a referendum on the government’s effectiveness in addressing key domestic issues.
• According to the media monitoring tool Awario, elections were at the center of attention within all media types in Lithuania throughout October. First of all, the search containing all Lithuanian forms of the word “rinkimai” (“elections”), resulted in over 3k mentions across the media that the monitoring tool was able to capture. (see daily distribution of mentions below)

• Moreover, the notable number of mentions resulted in over 21M reach, peaking right before the first round and right after the second rounds of elections (see daily distribution below)

• Finally, “Awario” revealed that a huge percentage of all elections-related material posted online held a negative sentiment: statistics showed that over 17% of all posts were negative, while only nearly 6% were written with a positive note (see daily distribution and overall percentages below ).